COURSE OVERVIEW

 This practical and highly-interactive course includes various practical sessions and exercises. Theory learnt will be applied using the Monte Carlo simulation. 

One of the most characteristic features of the oil and gas industry is the dramatic risk/reward relationship associated with exploration. Industry professionals must understand these dynamics and understand the language of risk analysis. Participants learn the decision analysis process and foundation concepts so they can actively participate in multi-discipline evaluation teams. The focus is on designing and solving decision models. Probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through the calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. 

Good technical and business decisions are based on competent analysis of project costs, benefits and risks. Participants learn the decision analysis process and foundation concepts so they can actively participate in multi-discipline evaluation teams. The focus is on designing and solving decision models. Probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Monte Carlo simulation is discussed and experienced in detail in a hand-calculation exercise. Project modeling fundamentals and basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. Emphasis is on practical techniques for immediate application. 

 This course provides participants a practical, hands-on approach to modern techniques in petroleum risk and decision analysis. The techniques presented are applicable to all aspects of oil and gas exploration and production - prospect evaluation, resource allocation, diversification, risk sharing, and corporate planning. 

 

The course helps participants develop problem solving, leadership, and functional skills necessary to manage the modern oil and gas enterprise. Participants will find the concepts and techniques stimulating and beneficial - enabling them to apply risk and decision making concepts to their jobs immediately. 

 

Participants learn how to design and solve decision trees and payoff tables, popular decision modeling techniques. These methods provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Judgments about risks and uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation, another powerful technique, is also presented. Four basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. The mathematics is straightforward and mostly involves only common algebra.